Hired gun: Ted Frank takes a look at the recent “expert” testimony at the current Vioxx trial. “But what Lucchesi actually opined was that Irvin took Vioxx for 23 days, and that Vioxx was “highly likely” to be responsible for Irvin’s death. And it’s this opinion that I object to.

What is highly likely? Two-thirds? Four-fifths? Ninety percent? These numbers would translate into relative risks of 3.0, 5.0, and 10.0 respectively. But Lucchesi’s theory requires one to interpolate the long-term relative risks as equivalent to the short-term relative risks. And there’s no evidence the long-term relative risk, much less the short-term relative risk, is that high. There isn’t even statistically significant evidence supporting a short-term relative risk greater than 1. Lucchesi has left the field of science and entered into the realm of advocacy of a conclusory opinion.”