This health-care actuary is not so confident in high-deductible insurance plans. “Most people aren’t yet comfortable with the idea of high-deductible insurance, and with good reason. You pay lower premiums but are left with a riskier plan. Over time, people will make the switch to save money, just like they did when HMOs came around. After that it’s anybody’s guess. Some people think that this will save health care. More likely, this new product won’t be dramatic enough to significantly alter behavior.

It will save enough money to avoid crisis for a few more years. Drug companies will still market expensive, overhyped drugs. Our infant mortality rate will continue to be greater than most other developed nations. Medical costs will continue to outpace inflation. We will again approach a crisis. This time, however, there might not be a new product to save the day. France’s health care system won’t look so bad anymore. Then we will finally have a serious conversation about universal health care.”