President Obama has decided to place all his bets on an “up and down vote” on his health care bill.
The stakes are enormous and rests on ten risky Obama bets.
Bet One – His legacy depends on the outcome. If he loses, he may be a one-term president, and Democrats may lose their majorities in the House and Senate come November.
Bet Two – The American people will ultimately recognize this is a moral not a political decision, in his words, “I do not know how this plays politically, but I know it’s right. “
Bet Three – People will recognize health reform is more urgent than job creation, and one must be done before the other, so “Let’s get it done!”
Bet Four – Public polls showing a 75% disapproval and 25% approval of Obamacare are irrelevant. Once the people taste the fruits of reform, they will love it, and they will love me.
Bet Five – The risks of inaction and a one year debate without resolution are too great, and doing something, no matter how flawed or limited, is better than doing nothing.
Bet Six – “Blue Dog,” fiscally conservative, and abortion-adverse Democrats are perfectly willing to sacrifice their reelection chances on the altar of Obamacare.
Bet Seven – Obama’s powers of persuasion are unlimited.
Bet Eight – Doctors will be delighted at Obama’s suggestions that he is open to malpractice alternatives and heightened payments for Medicaid recipients, and will willingly accept new Medicare patients at reduced reimbursements.
Bet Nine – It is possible to turn 17% of the American economy and a $2.5 trillion industry, downside up, and to superimpose a government system on a market system, in one fell swoop.
Bet Ten – The American people will accept the concept that Big Brother and Big Bureaucrats know best and patients and doctors know least.
Those taking bets and wagering on the outcome have two points of view. One maintains these ten Obama bets smack of condescending arrogance and reveal him as a reckless and feckless prisoner of his ideology; the other stoutly insists he is showing political courage by taking advantage of a historic opportunity that may not come again.
Richard Reece is the author of Obama, Doctors, and Health Reform and blogs at medinnovationblog.
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