Why Medicare for all won’t work

Medicare for all is much easier said than done.

Maggie Mahar (via Ezra Klein) points to some real reasons why expanding Medicare will be difficult, and filled with unknowns. As Ezra puts it, “when you take a program with 44 million beneficiaries, all of whom are in the same age range, and scale it to 300 million beneficiaries across all age demographics, a lot of uncertainty is introduced Medicare.”

The administrative savings from such a system are grossly overstated, and the necessary tax hikes to the middle class will be significant.

Countries with a mostly publicly-funded health system, like Germany and Switzerland, have families contribute about $9,000 annually in health premiums. The majority in the United States, who cost-share premiums with their employers, pay far less than that. In these difficult economic times, it is unlikely that voters will want to pay more in terms of health premiums if Medicare for all was enacted. And that’s on top of marked tax increases.

Finally, 30 percent of doctors already refuse to accept Medicare. If the program were expanded, it will only hasten the physician exodus to cash-only models. Who will patients turn for care then?

A single-payer system is a political non-starter in the United States. Those who spend significant time and energy supporting such a cause would be better served putting their weight behind a more realistic scenario.

To do otherwise will only make them irrelevant in the upcoming health reform debate.

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  • Anonymous

    “Finally, 30 percent of doctors already refuse to accept Medicare. If the program were expanded, it will only hasten the physician exodus to cash-only models. Who will patients turn for care then?”

    Who do they turn to now? I am very well insured, I don’t need a referral for my insurance company so no paperwork for PCP. I don’t feel cared for now. I can’t get appointments when needed, my care is rushed and often a waste of time. I feel the only option I have now is to forgo medical care or find a concierge practice.

  • Anonymous

    Th question is how does that 9 K in germany compare with the average employer/employee contribution here?

  • Anonymous

    Medicare for all would not leave people unable to find a doctor for very few doctors could afford to opt out. What it would do is leave them unable to get anything but rushed third rate care from that doctor.

    A two tier system would immediately establish itself–but few would be in the higher tier.

    Medicare doesn’t cover the cost of decent care now. Where decent care is given to Medicare beneficiaries, it is being subsidized by other payers. Eliminating those other payers would eliminate the subsidy, and what the government pays for is all recipients would get.

    It is also noteworthy that the “crises” that gave us Medicare was that senior citizens were paying 21% of their income on medical care. With Medicare, they still pay 20%.

    Ultimately, it would solve nothing and create many new problems. In the future things would bet even worse as medical schools would find the applicant pool circling the drain.

  • michael

    I’m paying $7K a year more or less for a $5K deductable policy in NH plus I pay NH property taxes of $6500 of which a significant amount goes to healthcare for the poor, plus my Federal taxes that go for the poor, plus the $1K if I’m healthy out of pocket I pay for health care, more if not.

    According to several studies, we in the US pay more per person in taxes for health care than the Canadians pay per person in taxes for health care, and they live longer.

    And by the way, most of the Swiss get their health care insurance paid by employers like the lucky 60% of workers in the US who get their health insurance from their employers.

    And the Swiss have the most expensive health care behind the US, because its system differs from the US in only two ways: everyone must buy it, and insurers must insurer anyone who applies equally without considering preconditions.

    In other words, the Swiss system is NOT “a mostly publicly-funded health system” if that means funded by taxes.

  • Julia

    I think it’s a little presumptuous to equate “medicare for all” with any sort of “single-payer system”. Clearly any such workable system would have to alter reimbursements so that doctors do not lose money by seeing patients (as many do now with Medicare and Medicaid), and would be massively reworked to cover necessary care for all age groups. Really the only similarity between Medicare and this kind of new hypothetical system would be the concept of a single entity negotiating for and distributing payments. I think such a system has the potential to be self-correcting in terms of fair reimbursements; i.e., if doctors are not paid enough to make a decent living, the entire thing will quickly implode, and someone needs to come up with a solution quickly.

    And, as already pointed out by another reader, the $9K contributed by the citizens of publicly-funded health systems most likely is actually less than the premiums that an employee and his/her employer pay in total now. Moreover, I believe that $9K covers a significantly greater proportion of basic services (lab work, prescriptions, screening exams, etc) without the need for a copay by the patient, which should also be figured into how much the average person in the U.S. actually pays for health care here.

    We already know that we pay more per-capita for health care here than almost any other industrialized country, and although you may argue that the government and large companies shield the consumer from much of that cost burden now, the fact that such a system is clearly non-sustainable is the very reason that we are having these conversations now.

  • Tony

    1) Scaling Medicare to 300 million would mean that 300 million would be paying premiums into the health care system and currently 1/5 of citizens are not… so revenues would increase.

    2) If everyone had Medicare, then almost all physicians would need to accept it or risk losing their patients.

    3) Per capita, the current US system is the most expensive in the world with private insurers making profits on lower risk patients and Medicare covering more expensive care. Adding younger patients to Medicare could improve its sustainability.

    4) Medicare has uniform standards of care that could be easily tweaked for younger patients.

    5) Medicare’s RVU reimbursement system would make payments more uniform, thus reducing the incentive to cherry-pick patients based on revenue.

    6) Medicare-for-all need not be single payer, but it could and should be single payment.

    [Note: I'm an OB/Gyn who has very little Medicare in my practice, but I see the need to cover everyone in some way.]

  • Anonymous

    You forgot 7) Medicare has a scheduled bankruptcy date which would only been rapidly advanced by increasing the number of beneficiaries. It’s a BROKEN SYSTEM.

    Suggesting extending it to all is quite honestly one of the stupidest things I’ve ever heard. It’s like looking at Social Security going broke and saying, wow, let’s enroll more people in it!

  • Anonymous

    That tony thinks RVU eliminates cherry picking shows how little he has to do with Medicare!

    Medicare for all would work like the NHS: Few docs outside of it at first, but as the system erroded for lack of rational market based funding, more and more would elect to not take advatage of the “free” care to which they are entitled and pay privately instead. In a generation it would have devolved to a welfare program for the poor.

  • Tony

    I’m reluctant to to respond to any Anonymous posts, but I’ll make it a quick one.

    Medicare is not bankrupt. I’ll repeat, Medicare is not bankrupt. In fact, it’s not even close. Social Security, on the other hand, does have a scheduled date where its benefit payout will exceed its estimated income… but– and this is important to understand– it’s because the SS income from payroll taxes has been put into the general revenue fund. Remember Gore’s much maligned lockbox argument? Never hear that anymore, but that doesn’t mean it’s not pertinent.

    As far as comparisons to the NHS, they’re fallacious. In Britain everyone contributes to health insurance and it’s their choice if they want to go outside NHS. In the US 1/5 contribute nothing to their health insurance but do pay taxes to Medicare to cover elderly beneficiaries who sometimes have a lot of money. This makes no sense.

    But the most annoying thing about people who do not see that universal care coverage is important is that they never have any better suggestions. The status quo is not workable as health care costs take up 15% of our GDP, businesses go bankrupt because health care is inexplicably tied to jobs, and quality of care deteriorates.

    Including everyone in Medicare would actually increase revenue for docs who take Medicare patients. One reason I went into Ob/Gyn way back when was because the reimbursement was better than other specialties that took more Medicare and the problems with Medicare were manifest even back in the late 80′s when I made that decision.

  • JB

    My husband and I are both 40 and self employed with 4 children. I have a cancer history and he has a heart condition. To insure us all our cost is over $1400. a month, seperate policies because 2 of us are high risk so our deductables were over $5000 a year. How can we afford that? We work very hard to keep a float and are not asking the government for free heathcare but it would be nice to have affordable health insurance