When faced with a difficult medical decision, use a roulette wheel as a visual aid

Comments

Anonymous
Great idea, you throw a dart at the board or spin the wheel and let it decide for you. Who needs to think?
“Judging by the numbers alone, there is a clear answer to this hypothetical problem: a person is much better off taking the vaccine.” Not true. if the chance of getting the disease is say 40% then the chance of death by disease is .4 * .1 = 4%. With the vaccine the chance of death is always 5%. So If the chance of getting infected is less than 50% taking the vaccine is the wrong choice.
diora
Well, if doctors like Kevin don’t understand the difference between relative risk and absolute risk, what would you expect from journalists?
Am I the only one who finds it ironic that Kevin posted about percentages and probabilities during the same days he talked how he scares his patients into taking statins by using meaningless relative numbers (comparing 30% relative risk reduction with a small absolute risk of side effects).

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